Vaccination coverage against human papillomavirus in girls aged 9 to 14 in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 2015–2023

a time series analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Infection with the human papillomavirus is one of the main causes of cervical cancer, and vaccination is an essential preventive measure. Monitoring vaccination coverage among girls aged 9 to 14 years is crucial to assess the impact of public health policies and to guide control actions. Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of vaccination coverage against human papillomavirus among girls aged 9 to 14 years in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2015 and 2023. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study based on data obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Unified Health System and the Information System of the National Immunization Program. The number of second doses administered was considered. Vaccination coverage rates were calculated annually, and the trend was analyzed using the Prais-Winsten regression model. The Durbin-Watson test was applied to assess serial autocorrelation. Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, with a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: A total of 686,804 second doses of the quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus were administered to girls aged 9 to 14 years during the study period. The overall coverage rate was approximately 41%, with an average of 16.5%. The annual percentage variation was -1.8% (95% confidence interval: -2.1 to 0.6; p-value = 0.02). The Durbin-Watson coefficient was 2.04, indicating a stationary temporal trend. Conclusion: Vaccination coverage against human papillomavirus among girls aged 9 to 14 years in the state of Rio de Janeiro remained low and stationary between 2015 and 2023, highlighting the need to strengthen immunization strategies to increase adherence and improve cervical cancer prevention.

Keywords: Human papillomavirus, Vaccines, Gynecology, Public health.