Análise do modelo logístico aplicado à primeira onda da Covid-19 nos países com os 20 maiores PIB’S
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12662/2317-3076jhbs.v10i1.4226.p1-7.2022Keywords:
Infecções por Coronavirus, Simulação por computador, PandemiaAbstract
Objetivo: aplicar a modelagem logística da primeira onda da COVID-19, com índice nos países com 20 maiores Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Métodos: foi utilizada a modelagem matemática de crescimento logístico, considerando os seguintes parâmetros: número cumulativo de casos (C), tamanho final da epidemia na onda única de um surto (K), taxa intrínseca de crescimento (y) e tempo de inflexão (τ). Resultados: o Brasil apresentou maior número de casos e mortalidade, e os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) maior número de casos absolutos. A Coreia do Sul evidenciou o menor ponto de inflexão de 15,3 dias, enquanto o maior foi da Indonésia, com 213,9 dias. Na análise entre o ponto de inflexão e casos acumulados (/100 mil habitantes), observou-se correlação positiva moderada significativa (r=0,629 e p=0,003); (r=0,532 e p=0,016). Conclusão: o reconhecimento do comportamento de uma epidemia por meio da modelagem matemática torna possível determinar a propagação de uma epidemia, visto que, com a possibilidade de captar a dinâmica de uma epidemia, torna-se possível prever a necessidade de medidas públicas antecipadas e, consequentemente, diminuição da mortalidade global.
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