Homicídios em homens jovens: tendência e projeção em Mato Grosso-Brasil, 1996-2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12662/2317-3076jhbs.v9i1.3604.p1-8.2021Keywords:
Homicídio, Adulto jovem, Adolescente, Predição, Estudos de séries temporaisAbstract
Objetivo: Analisar a tendência de 1996 a 2017 e projetar de 2018 a 2022 a taxa de homicídios em homens jovens, segundo faixa etária, no estado de Mato Grosso. Métodos: Trata-se de Estudo ecológico, exploratório, de tendência temporal. Para modelagem da série e predição da taxa de homicídios para o período de 2018-2022, utilizou-se o método ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average). Resultados: Verificou-se a tendência temporal crescente de homicídios em homens jovens (15 a 29 anos), com manutenção de taxas altas para a população masculina de 15 a 19 anos. A previsão para o quinquênio 2018-2022 indicou elevação das taxas de homicídios entre homens jovens, revelando crescimento maior em adolescentes, mesmo com menores taxas ao longo dos anos. Conclusão: Este estudo indicou tendência crescente de homicídios em homens jovens em Mato Grosso, sobretudo em adolescentes. Visto que o homicídio possui variadas facetas fomentadoras admite-se que número substancial de homicídios deste estrato social poderia ser evitado seguindo estratégias eficazes de prevenção por meio de políticas públicas.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
a) Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
b) Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
c) Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
Declaration
Transfer of Copyright
The author hereby declare that the article entitled "TITLE OF THE ARTICLE" approved for publication in the Journal of Health & Biological Sciences is an original work that has not been published or is being considered for publication elsewhere, that is in print or electronic.
The author's manuscript quoted above also states (m):
- I certify that I have participated sufficiently in the work to take public responsibility for the content.
- I declare that the use of any trademark or copyright in the manuscript has been credited to its owner or permission to use the name was given, if necessary.
- I declare that I agree that the copyright for the article referenced above will become the exclusive property of the Journal of Health & Biological Sciences - JHBS, any form of reproduction, in whole or in part, in any form or means of disclosure, printed or electronic, without the prior authorization is required, and, if obtained, I include my thanks to the Journal of Health & Biological Sciences - JHBS.
- The original submission to the Journal of Health and Biological Sciences (JHBS) imply transfer by authors, printed and digital publishing rights.
Note: All persons listed as authors must sign this statement and signed statements will not be accepted by others.
The original statement shall be signed, dated and sent to the address below or by email:
JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES & HEALTH
Councilman Paul Street Mamede, 130 - 5th floor - Neighborhood: Coco.
Fortaleza - CE
CEP 60192-350
Phone: (85) 3265-8109, Ext: 8109
e-mail: @ secretaria.jhbs fchristus.edu.br
