Predição de casos e óbitos de COVID-19 em Mato Grosso e no Brasil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12662/2317-3076jhbs.v8i1.3224.p1-7.2020Keywords:
Coronavírus, COVID-19, Previsão, Incidência, EpidemiologiaAbstract
Objetivos: prever a tendência epidemiológica de casos e óbitos do COVID-19 no Brasil e, especificamente, em Mato Grosso, por meio do modelo estatístico duplo exponencial. Métodos: para a realização deste trabalho, foram utilizados dados de casos e óbitos do COVID-19 fornecidos pelo Ministério da Saúde do Brasil e Secretaria de Estado de Saúde de Mato Grosso, e, para realizar as previsões com esses dados, foi utilizada a técnica estatística de séries temporais, considerando o modelo exponencial duplo, e para o processamento dos dados, foi utilizado o programa MINITAB V 17. Resultados: os resultados mostram que os valores ajustados pelo modelo exponencial duplo transformado dos casos e óbitos estão muito próximos dos valores observados de COVID-19 no
Brasil e, principalmente, em Mato Grosso, no período considerado, indicando que esse modelo é adequado para os dados em estudo, o qual foi verificado, prevendo alguns valores com seus respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95%. Conclusões: a possibilidade de se estimar, pautado em análises estatísticas, o número de casos e óbitos de COVID-19 que ocorrerá no Brasil e no estado de Mato Grosso poderá instrumentalizar os gestores para o planejamento de
ações estratégicas de prevenção, monitoramento e controle da pandemia.
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